Turnovers

"Will this defense cause more turnovers than last year? And can that make up for such a young offense now that Beck & Brown are gone?-Anonymous"

To establish a benchmark, we need to understand 2006. By the end of the season BYU was ranked #4 in the country in the turnover margin. BYU lost a total of 4 fumbles all season and tied for #18 with 9 passes intercepted. That is a grand total of 13 turnovers in the season, 1 a game. BYU was tied for #74 with 9 fumbles recovered and tied at #12 with 18 interceptions for a grand total of 27. That equals a +1.08 turnover margin on the season, really quite impressive.

Who caused these turnovers and are they coming back?

Returning player interceptions: 7 (Not including Matangi Tonga)
Graduated player interceptions: 8

Returning player forced fumble/recoveries: 8/6
Graduated player forced fumble/recoveries: 0/3

These numbers are surprising. They show that most turnovers were caused and recovered by players that will be on this year's team. It doesn't take into account the fact that most of the players that graduated were starters and therefore had a greater opportunity to cause/recover a turnover.

Will as many turnovers be caused?

The three main elements of most turnovers, beyond dumb luck, are:
1. Being where the other team doesn't expect you to be: Blitzing is one of the most effective ways to create turnovers. Missed blocks on a incoming LB or a safety being where the QB didn't expect him is a key ingredient in taking the ball away. Just ask Jeff Ballard (1:41 into the video.) BYU's returning defensive players tallied 10 of 11 quarterback hurries last year. With a year of experience more and faster ILBers, I think this number will only increase. Reports from spring practice say the blitzing scheme's added to the defense were tough for the offense, this only bodes well for increasing the number of turnovers next year.
2. Sticking to your assignment: If a OLB is blitzing, the rest of the team has to make sure they are sticking to their assignments. Overpursuit not only can create big plays, but also means they aren't there to make the play when the quarterback makes a bad decision. BYU's defense improved vastly in this area last year and the result was some easy turnovers.
3. Good tackling: There is nothing that separates a player from the ball faster than a well-placed hit. BYU's focus over the summer last season paid off, it will only get getter as the players get faster and stronger.

Now to the offensive side of the ball. BYU did not turn the ball over last year very much for two main reasons: John Beck and Curtis Brown. Beck only threw 8 interceptions all season to his 32 passing touchdowns. He was accurate, with the second highest passing efficiency rating (169.1) in the country and completing nearly 70% of his throws. I have looked everywhere but cannot find an official statistic for how many fumbles Curtis Brown had. I cannot remember any from the 2006 season. Brown had an iron grip on the ball and simply did not fumble, a very important part of the positive turnover margin.

Can the defense, which will probably do better in total number of turnovers, make up for the young offense?

No.

Fui Vakapuna and Manase Tonga both fumbled several times during this last season. Fui tends to carry the ball away from his body so he can hit people and sometimes loses the ball. Hopefully this is being addressed but in the end it is very likely the number of fumbles will increase. The number of interceptions is also very likely to increase. The spread offense is based a lot of chemistry and timing. If the receiver does not break when the quarterback thought he would the ball is up for grabs. Max Hall has a long ways to get the timing and trust that John Beck had with his receivers. If he works as hard as Beck during this whole summer, the number of interceptions is likely to be in the low teens. Hall is also more aggressive and likes to thread the needle which may also lead to more turnovers. If Hall goes down, Gaskins has no spring practice to fall back on and likely will throw some unfortunate passes.

My 3 Cents: BYU will probably have a decent ranking in the turnover margin (mid 20s is my guess) next season because while the offense will turn the ball over more often, the defense will probably get the ball themselves more often due to increased speed, better understanding of the defense, more experience, and the new wrinkles in the zone blitzes.