Undefeated?

Question I received on another post:
"Keep going. Good stuff. What are odds we go undefeated this fall?-Anonymous

Great question actually, something all BYU fan's have deep inside their head. It was hard after the 2005 season to even contemplate a good 2006. With a 10-game winning streak, this year it is a little easier to dream of, and hope for, a perfect season. This question is deeper than it seems: Will BYU go to a BCS bowl this year? Could
they possibly be National Champions?

As mentioned in the heading of the blog, I'm really not a math whiz. In fact, I haven't taken a real math class since my sophomore year of high school. That being said, my "odds" won't be mathematically correct, but I think my logic will be.

Anyways, Ill break it down by game:

Arizona(H): I think BYU wins this one in a close game. Arizona is implementing a new offense that BYU defense is very familiar with. The offensive line of UA is young and will still be getting use to the new splits. The QB and WR's will need to have near perfect execution if they want to sustain long drives against BYU defense at home. UA has a very good defense and Hall will definitely have his work cut out for him. I'd give BYU a 60% chance of winning.

UCLA(A): Toughest game of the season. On the road at the Rose Bowl against a ranked team. However, Im not as convinced that the 20 returning starters are going to dominate the game. UCLA only finished with a 7-6 record, including a loss in their bowl game. Their win over USC, while a huge win, wasn't really that spectacular. It was a pretty ugly game for both teams. I hope Ben Olson is the starting QB so BYU can show him what he missed out on. JJ DiLuigi mentioned in an interview he already has the UCLA game circled on his calendar, I hope he gets to see the field to make a mark. BYU 40% chance of winning, I think the road game this early will be too much.


Tulsa(A): New coach, same outcome. I think BYU rolls over Tulsa again. This game will be closer, but BYU will still come out by a couple touchdowns. BYU has a 80% chance of winning.

Air Force(H): Air Force has a new coach and a new mentality. Sadly, I don't think they are going to do very well this year. The guys on the team were all brought in for an option offense and they aren't quite the right personnel for this new passing attack. They also lose their edge of being the only option attack that most teams will see all year so most defenses, not just BYU, will be more effective against them. BYU has a 80% chance of winning.

New Mexico(A): This game could be a surprise for BYU, but I believe Bronco will have BYU ready to play. BYU has the bottom half of the conference on the road and the top half at home, good scheduling. BYU has a 65% chance of winning.

UNLV(A): BYU rolls. 3rd string RBs and Gaskins will score. BYU has a 90% chance of winning.

Eastern Washington(H): If BYU doesn't win, I am shaving my head and changing my name to Eastern Washington's QB's name (Note: Took me a while to find it, Matt Nichols... Could be worse. I could have said their CB DeNique Ford or RB Toke Kefu.) BYU will win. Period.

San Diego State(A): For their sake, I hope SDSU isn't bitten by the injury bug again this year. I feel bad that they had to play us last year with their 3rd string QB, 4th string (does that exist?) TE and a dilapidated defense. BYU has a 90% chance of winning.

Colorado State(H): This could be a late season shocker for BYU if they don't keep their guard up. Kyle Bell is back and will be trying to make amends for his last performance in LES (36 yards.) BYU has a 60% chance of winning.

TCU(H): This is for all the marbles folks. IF BYU and TCU are both undefeated at this point (unlikely but possible) this may be the biggest clash in MWC history: Two top 15 teams at the end of the season. Even if both teams are not undefeated, this will probably determine the MWC champion. BYU has a 60% chance of winning.

Wyoming(A): Again people are using the "lots of starters" returning for Wyoming. Yipee. BYU beat them 55-7 last year, so if they think that bringing those same guys back means they will win, they are in for a rude awakening in Laramie. I think the score will be closer, within 20 points this time. BYU has a 65% chance of winning.

Utah(H): Closer than any of us are comfortable with, but BYU will win convincingly. BYU has a 75% chance of winning this game.


So what does it all mean? Probably not. I see BYU ending the season around 7-5 at worst (Possible losses to UA, UCLA, CSU, TCU, Utah and 1 surprise) and as good as 10-2 if Hall is as good as advertised. This team will probably stumble as some point because of the loss of senior leaders. Hopefully Bronco can keep them focused enough that the stumble lasts 1 game, not a stretch.

My 3 Cents: 2009 is the year the stars align. I would say 2008, but we lose a lot of defensive starters (Kehl, Nixon, Gabriel, Gooch, Criddle to be exact.) In 2008 BYU will be very good, but probably not BCS busting good. 2009 we play Notre Dame among others, Hall is a Senior, Austin is all the way back, Jacobson could be back, JJ DiLuigi and Ryan Kessman will have a couple years under his belt, the Defensive line will be seniors with 3 years starting under their belts. You heard it here first.

Check back tomorrow when I tackle another reader question: "Will this defense cause more turnovers than last year? And can that make up for such a young offense now that Beck & Brown are gone?"