Why BYU will win...

On September 22nd the Falcons are coming to town with their new-fangled offense and a new coach for the first time since the Declaration of Independence was signed. Will BYU be able to contain this new attack?

Yup.

The new offense will just not work for Air Force. Now, I greatly respect the cadets and Air Force as a team. No team steps it up in the 4th quarter better than them. That being said, their current roster just won't support the type of offense being installed. Carney, while being a pretty good QB, won't see the type of success many are expecting him to have when he is "unleashed" by this new offense.

Last year against BYU Carney had a pass efficiency rating of 22. Air Force was ranked 118 of 119 D-1 teams in passing. Unlike the first games Air Force plays, BYU will have tape on the new scheme and be able to plan for it. Carney benefited last year from a run-offense. If the defense is expecting a run every single play, when you finally do throw it catches them offguard. Last season, Air Force ran the ball 660 times and put it in the air 112 times. Interestingly enough, they only scored 22 TDs on the ground (BYU ran the ball 437 times and put it in the endzone 27 times.) With a 6/1 ratio of run to pass, the defense cheats up so the DB's can help with the run, particularly in defending against the option. This year, however, with operating out of the shotgun, BYU will be able to sit back a little more and keep Carney's rating to sub-100, you heard it hear first.

By Air Force fans' own admission, the offensive line may be a weak point with inexperience. Due to the conditioning required as a cadet, most of the linemen are unable to keep up their weight and they only have a couple over 300 lbs. Essentially the BYU front three will be as big as the guys they go against. BYU returns 3 starters on the defensive line and a much quicker LB corps than last year. BYU should be in the backfield early and often. The running backs won't get the space they need to run and BYU will keep them well under their average again.

As for the 5 reasons Air Force will win:

1. Sean Carney will pass for a ton of yards: Doubt it. Last year he only completed 2 pass attempts and was mostly ineffective against BYU's defense which is looking to only improve on last years performance, this time at home. Air Force only completed 46% of passes against defenses expecting the run. Without that gimmick, Carney really needs to improve his accuracy or he will be in for a long game/season.

2) AF will win the kicking game with an outstanding Punter and Kicker: Whittingham? Is that you? In all seriousness, if you are relying on your special teams to win the game, you should be worried.

3) We tend to play well in September, before a grinding Academic and Military schedule take their toll: I have to agree with this part, AFA does play its best football at the beginning of the year.

4) Defense won't be as passive as in the past: Will it matter? BYU will have played 2 BCS conference teams and Tulsa by now, the offense should be clicking. Of the 4 games, Air Force will have either the worst or second to worst defense of the all.

5) Pregame flyby will rattle BYU players: While it would be great, I don't know if they do that at away games. Either way, Air Force players will be much more rattled by 65,000 screaming fans.

My 3 Cents: BYU cruises. It is always a tough game against Air Force because of their tenacity, but the offense will be too much and the defense will be more stifling than last year. It will be the first game at home since Arizona and, if BYU is undefeated at this point, the first opportunity for a grateful fan base to see their highly ranked team. Id say BYU wins in a similar fashion as last year with a 2+ touchdown advantage.