At the risk of alienating some true-blue fans, I want to comment on a possible weakness this year, namely, a lack of game-breaking speed.
Now, I’m aware that raw speed is often over-hyped and can be as meaningless as size or bench pressing statistics. But I also know that speed has its place, especially at the highest levels of D-1 competition.
When your receiver catches a ball on a post pattern, there is nothing more satisfying than watching him pull away from the defenders for six. And there is nothing more frustrating than watching him get reeled in and tackled by a plodding safety. Cliff Branch, a 10.1 sprinter for the Raiders years ago, made a living of turning short passes into long touchdowns. By doing so, he forced the defense to play off farther back than they wanted to. A fast receiver with good hands is literally worth his weight in gold in the NFL (about $1.5 million for a 200-pound man).
Does BYU have any million-dollar men? For our purposes, I will define such an athlete as one with sub-4.4 speed in the forty. How fast is this? At this year’s NFL combine, only five receivers clocked sub-4.4s, out of 46 athletes. (The fastest was Yamon Figures of Kansas St., who ran a 4.31.) Last year BYU had one player running in this rarified air—McKay Jacobson, who reportedly ran a series of 4.33 - 4.35s.
This year I only have rumors and my own eye-witness estimates to judge by, but I believe there is only one athlete who qualifies on BYU’s team. Bryce Mahuika, a 5-9 receiver from Vancouver, Washington, probably runs in the high 4.3s. Last year he saw time at inside receiver (H-back), but I wouldn’t be surprised to see someone with his speed moved to outside receiver. He may also return kick-offs.
So, we probably have one player running in the 4.3s. That’s great, but how many can run in the 4.4s? At best, two: Brandon Howard, and Dustin Gabriel. How many can run in the 4.5s? Again, just a few—perhaps David Tafuna, Kayle Buchanan, and Isaac Taylor. Out of this group, only one is an offensive player.
With my apologies for any omissions, it appears that the rest of our returning skill players run 4.6 or slower. Word is that at least two of our new receivers run between 4.8 and 5.0. I considered including a list of our skill players and their estimated forty times, but I think we get the picture. With perhaps one exception, we lack dangerous, break-away, game-changing speed.
Are speedy players simply not available to BYU? Do they want to ply their trade elsewhere, or do the coaches find many of them unacceptable for other reasons? Although Bronco knows that speed is not the most important element on the field, surely he wants his share of burners. As he and his staff continue scouting for 2009 and 2010, let’s hope some of these talent-rich athletes find their way to BYU.
5 comments:
I did not see Austin Collie anywhere in the article. I know that he has yet to regain his feshman legs, but I would imagine that he will be close to as fast as Jacobson was last year by the time that the season starts. Fortunately our offense is one designed for players with sure hands that can run routs well.
Johny Harline was another player with average speed in the 40, but there are a couple of clips of him running away from the defensive backs of the other team. I would like as much speed on the field as possible, but speed still takes a back seat to being able to make plays.
Good points and I'm not alienated but I will still post some rebuttal for the sake of balance.
I'm not so concerned with receivers pulling away from the defense on their way to scoring as I am about them not getting dragged down short of the goal-line, assuming that they start off making the catch to begin with.
Cliff Branch did start his career as a blazing fast receiver, but over time, he extended his career by becoming more of a smart and savvy Belitnikoff type. He learned to trade off the threat of speed to gain space to make the catch and then maneuver. With his additional technique, knowledge and experience, he was effective even after wear and tear reduced his speed.
I think they moved Mahuika to the outside during pre-season practices last year, but it may be that his ability to change direction, leap, and maneuver make him even more valuable in the slot than his pure speed makes him on the outside.
Fans talked about Austin Collie as a deep threat during his freshman year and about how fast he was. They assumed he was fast because of how well he did, but he probably never ran below a 4.5 or 4.6 40. He did run exact routes, gained separation, and fooled and outfought defenders for the ball. He was tough enough to keep his balance, absorb hits, and make catches. His speed wasn't what made him a freshman all-american.
BYU's offense has traditionally thrived with smart, reliable players who make the most of their assets, whether possessing great speed or not. Jacobson, who was the only so-called offensive skill player who possessed breakaway speed on last year's team, had 3 receptions for TDs, a mark that was exceeded by Harline (who typically runs in the 4.7 range) with 12 and equaled by four other players with lesser speed. Three more players were right behind with 2 each.
BYU suffered the same lack of offensive speed last year but still ranked 4th best in the nation in total offense and 5th best in scoring offense last year.
Timed speed, as you've mentioned is only one type of talent and if it were the most significant factor, Wayne Latu would be the starting RB this year and Michael Reed might never see the field at WR. Fortunately BYU's offense is designed for its best players to get the best results on the field and relative speed, while significant, is not the determining factor of who those players are.
Speed is fun to watch, but I'd rather watch skilled players who give their all being rewarded with success than a track meet on the football field.
BYU's offensive scheme limits the negative consequences of not having a true burner. You don't need a guy to fly down the field for the short passing game.
As mentioned, BYU's two top receivers last year weren't burners. Harline and Brown both ran in the 4.6 range during Pro Day.
That being said, I think Cruiser's point is valid, as is the rebuttal. Cruiser's point is that BYU isn't the fastest team, regardless of production. However, add a 4.3 burner to the mix and it adds a new dimension to the offense.
That being said, 2009 McKay will be back and Collie will be around still.
I wouldn't dog on Michael Reed so fast, either. He looked really trim and cut at the spring game a few months back, and also much quicker in and out of his breaks.
As aggressive as Max Hall is, I'd expect Collie and Reed to see a healthy dose of deep passes this year.
What happened to the comparison between 40 speed and game speed? Jerry Rice never had great 40 times, in fact that was the knock on him when he came out but I rarely saw him pulled down from behind and he ended up being the No. 1 receiver in the NFL. Last year Harline continually ran away from DB's and yet what did he run at the combine...I think a 4.7 - 4.8. So there is a difference and although I would love a 4.3 type also, I'll settle for "game speed".
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