I waited an extra week to see if any New Mexico fans would do a write up of their team for their September 29th home game against BYU. Since I am already nearly a week behind, I'm skipping the niceties and moving straight for the throat.
In reality, New Mexico will look very similar next year to the 2006 squad: They return 10 starters on defense and 9 on offense. The noticeable losses are lobo-back Quincy Black, QB Chris Nelson, and kicker Kenny Byrd. They return Rodney Ferguson, who averaged 94 yards a game last season and Donovan Porterie who had several good games last season as a back-up.
Will New Mexico challenge BYU for the Conference Championship? Doubtful. They are implementing another new offense after the loss of OC Toledo. They will again likely split the conference games and be looking to find a bowl at 6-6. The New Mexico Bowl is unable to take them as they played there last year.
That being said,
5 Reasons BYU will win:
5. New Mexico doesn't have a great run game. Hold your horses. I know Ferguson rushed for 1300 yards last season, but who else moved the ball on the ground? That is right, no one. New Mexico was #94 in the country with 111 yards per game on the ground. BYU was #53 with 141 yards per game. If Ferguson gets tired or gets injured, New Mexico has no running game. BYU scored 27 touchdowns on the ground. New Mexico only scored 10. Ferguson can't do it alone against BYU's front 7, including 5 returning starters and 2 other players with significant experience.
4. Porterie is good, but not great. You can consider his work so far from 4 games (where he had 10 or more pass attempts.) They won three games (By a combined total of 7 points) and lost to TCU. In that span he threw 5 touchdowns to 2 INTS, not a horrible ratio. But consider the teams he threw for over 100 yards on (Utah, Colorado State and UNLV) were ranked 55, 78, 113 nationally in pass efficiency defense. He has not been tested yet. BYU's secondary and speedy linebackers will give him fits.
3. BYU offense will be rolling by this point. By the end of September with two of the toughest games of the year already under the belt, BYU will be a well oiled machine. Last year BYU picked the Lobo defense apart for 464 yards through the air and another 189 on the ground. A total of 6 players scored during the course of the game. New Mexico's pass defense is suspect, allowing 28 touchdowns through the air and ranked #85 in the country in pass defense efficiency.
2. NM offensive line vs. BYU defensive line: NM needs to get better and has to find two linemen and a TE next season. NM ranked #110 in the country in sacks allowed, letting their QB's get pounded 43 times, an average of 3.3 a game! BYU's front three should be able to get plenty of pressure on the QB to force mistakes or get the sack.
1. Its bad Karma to not have a fan do this write-up. Seriously, no team has ever beat BYU that did not submit their own fan write-up.* Beware..... beware....
*Disclaimer: BYU has also never played a team that had a fan do a write up for my blog.
My 3 Cents: If I had to guess right now on the final score, put me down for BYU 40- NM 17 (all of their points come in the 4th quarter but a field goal.)
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